CampaignStrategy.live Predictive Model Calls Oklahoma Governor’s Top Two Finishers Within 0.3 Percentage Points

Behavioralintelligence  platform  correctly projects  Drummond-Maz zeirunoff  whileevery major public pollshowed afour-waystatisticaltie

United States, 19th Jun 2026 — CampaignStrategy.live  , a behavioral data and digital media platform, today announced that its proprietary predictive model projected every candidate in the June 16 Oklahoma Republican Governor’s Primary within 1.3 percentage points of the actual result — and called the top two finishers, Gentner Drummond and Mike Mazzei, within 0.3 points each. Every major public poll heading into election day showed a four-way statistical tie with no clear frontrunner.

The official results from the Oklahoma State Election Board confirm Drummond at 26.26% and Mazzei at 25.97%, with all 1,984 precincts reporting. CSL’s model projected the final margin between the two frontrunners at 931 votes. The actual certified margin was 1,158 votes — a difference of 227 votes across an electorate of more than 400,000 voters.

“Traditional polling captures a snapshot of voter sentiment at a single point in time,” said Rick Walker, Founder and Chief Strategist of CampaignStrategy.live. “Our model is built differently. We integrate a much broader set of variables — economic conditions at the local level, regional news cycles, media consumption patterns, issue salience by geography, and the velocity of political signals moving through specific communities — and we update continuously. That gives us a picture of the race that is both more precise and more current than any survey methodology can produce.”

A Multi-Variable Approach to Predictive Modeling

Where traditional polling relies primarily on self-reported voter preference, CSL’s platform synthesizes a wide range of independent data inputs to build its projections. These include, among other factors:

• Local economic conditions — county-level employment trends, property value indices, and cost-of-living pressures that shape how voters prioritize candidates and issues
• Regional news environment — the volume, tone, and reach of earned media coverage across local television, radio, digital news, and print outlets in each media market
• Media consumption patterns — the platforms, formats, and content categories that audiences in specific geographies are actively engaging with, and how political messaging is penetrating those environments
• Issue salience by geography — which policy issues are generating the highest level of attention and engagement in specific counties and communities, and how candidate positioning aligns with those priorities
• Endorsement signal velocity — the speed and depth at which high-profile endorsements are penetrating specific voter segments, measured by the responsiveness of those communities to the endorsing figure
• Historical voter behavior overlays — primary turnout patterns, ticket-splitting tendencies, and candidate performance history at the precinct level, weighted by current cycle conditions
• Competitive field dynamics — real-time modeling of how support is distributed and redistributing across a multi-candidate field as the race evolves

This combination of inputs allows the model to identify not just where voters stand at a given moment, but how they are likely to move — and why.

“This is a new way to do the math,” Walker said. “Traditional polling counts opinions. We count signals. The result is a fundamentally different — and more accurate — picture of where a race actually stands.”

Model Projection vs. Actual Results

CampaignStrategy.live Projection vs. Actual Results — All 5 Candidates

CSL’s model called the Drummond-Mazzei margin at 931 votes. The actual certified margin was 1,158 votes — a difference of 227 votes across an electorate of more than 400,000.

Looking Ahead: The August 25 Runoff

With the primary advancing to a runoff between Drummond and Mazzei, both campaigns must now persuade a combined 30-plus percent of the electorate that voted for eliminated candidates. Runoff turnout typically drops significantly from the primary, making broad demographic media buys far less efficient and precision targeting far more critical.

CampaignStrategy.live integrates its predictive model directly into its media delivery platform. Rather than purchasing pre-built audience segments from third-party platforms,

CSL builds custom voter models from its multi-variable data inputs and activates them directly in the ad delivery engine — reaching the right voters across digital, streaming, and OTT with precision and without waste.

“In a runoff, the race becomes a precision problem,” Walker said. “The campaign that can identify which voters from the eliminated candidates are genuinely persuadable — and reach them efficiently across every platform they use — holds a decisive advantage.”

For more information, visit campaignstrategy.live.  

About CampaignStrategy.live

CampaignStrategy.live is a behavioral data and digital media platform providing predictive intelligence and integrated media buying. The platform’s multi-variable modeling synthesizes local economic data, regional media environments, issue salience, and competitive field dynamics to produce continuously updated projections that go well beyond the capabilities of traditional survey-based polling.

CampaignStrategy.liveis  operated  by Exact  Audience,  a  Scottsdale,  Arizona-based behavioral dataanddigital media company. ExactAudience.ai.

Prepared by Rick Walker @Imagine Agency. Not prepared by Manus.

Company Details

Organization: Exact Audience

Contact Person: Rick Walker

Website: https://exactaudience.ai

Email: Send Email

Contact Number: +14807125512

Country: United States

Release Id: 19062646221